Am amazed and humbled by the level of response, passion and sense of feeling on my blog post. The EU – Information for the floating voter
Forum member Barney suggested doing a poll, which has certainly taken us by surprise and become the best poll we've ever run, with over 4,500 votes to date.
But it's the poll result that has me genuinely baffled. Although I personally think we would be better staying put, I'm not doing much for the stay cause as the poll shows a landslide vote to leave.
But it has now gone against all the traditional polls, which show a more reserved 50/50 or slight variation of the theme. Certainly not 84% leave
So why are they different?
Remember the exit polls on the last General Election? Completely wrong to the point of making polls useless as a mechanism to gauge reaction.
The general consensus seems to be leave voters are the ones who will determine the final vote, and the question is how many are just arm chair online voters, and how many will actually make it to the polling booths? Or how many are voicing what they would like to do, but on the night they will discreetly stick with the status quo?
Maybe our poll has been hijacked by the Leave campaign? I doubt it looking at our traffic demographics. We don't really attract kids, and the blog and forum are obviously are more biased to small business owners. But general site visitors cover all walks of life, though are predominantly 25-55 according to analytics.
Will 84% leave prove to be a more realistic indicator than the media and YouGov polls which seem to indicate a much closer race? I'm hoping we're wrong, but would be a great PR coup to be right
If anyone hasn't voted yet, still plenty of time to add your 5 pence worth. Stay/Leave/No idea
EU Referendum - In or Out Poll - select to vote
Without a crystal ball, who knows what the outcome will be, but the only thing for sure is our poll is now at complete odds to all official and media polls. We seem to be the only ones predicting a landslide leave, but at least we do have a sizeable sample of data and sea of anti EU sentiment in blog and Facebook comments.
I suppose if it turns out to be completely wrong, the question will be why?