EU Poll - media says 50/50, yet we show majority leave?

By : Administrator
Published 3rd May 2016 |
Read latest comment - 26th June 2016

Am amazed and humbled by the level of response, passion and sense of feeling on my blog post. The EU – Information for the floating voter

Forum member Barney suggested doing a poll, which has certainly taken us by surprise and become the best poll we've ever run, with over 4,500 votes to date.

But it's the poll result that has me genuinely baffled. Although I personally think we would be better staying put, I'm not doing much for the stay cause as the poll shows a landslide vote to leave.

But it has now gone against all the traditional polls, which show a more reserved 50/50 or slight variation of the theme. Certainly not 84% leave 

So why are they different? 

Remember the exit polls on the last General Election? Completely wrong to the point of making polls useless as a mechanism to gauge reaction.

The general consensus seems to be leave voters are the ones who will determine the final vote, and the question is how many are just arm chair online voters, and how many will actually make it to the polling booths? Or how many are voicing what they would like to do, but on the night they will discreetly stick with the status quo? 

Maybe our poll has been hijacked by the Leave campaign? I doubt it looking at our traffic demographics. We don't really attract kids, and the blog and forum are obviously are more biased to small business owners. But general site visitors cover all walks of life, though are predominantly 25-55 according to analytics.

Will 84% leave prove to be a more realistic indicator than the media and YouGov polls which seem to indicate a much closer race? I'm hoping we're wrong, but would be a great PR coup to be right 

If anyone hasn't voted yet, still plenty of time to add your 5 pence worth. Stay/Leave/No idea

EU Referendum - In or Out Poll - select to vote

Without a crystal ball, who knows what the outcome will be, but the only thing for sure is our poll is now at complete odds to all official and media polls. We seem to be the only ones predicting a landslide leave, but at least we do have a sizeable sample of data and sea of anti EU sentiment in blog and Facebook comments.

I suppose if it turns out to be completely wrong, the question will be why?


Steve Richardson
Gaffer of My Local Services
My Local Services | Me on LinkedIn
Comments

Can't wait for the day to arrive to be able to vote, for me it is possibly the 2nd such important vote day of my life , the first being 1994 in South Africa 


Thanks,
Andy-C | Pewter World

Well it looks like our poll is running out of steam, facebook comments seemed to have stopped and only 1 comment on the blog at the weekend.

Votes are 6,452 with 80% saying leave, 16% stay, and 4% undecided.

Interestingly, had a call from a representative of the official stay campaign on Friday, so the poll has obviously ruffled some feathers. Wanted to know if it was regional or nationwide.

Did invite them to join the forum and fight their corner (speaking as a stay supporter) and made the point that the leave campaign seemed to be a lot more active, and I think the stays need to up their game. Was assured we will see lots more activity and coverage over the next 2 weeks, and then was given facts and figures about other surveys that have the percentages much closer.

I was told I'd be sent some official info via email which I could add if I wanted to.

Well it never arrived, and the impression I have at the moment is some bizarre form of complacency from the stay campaign, and that everyone will come to their senses on polling day.

If our (now not so little) poll is to be believed, then the party line and the average bod in the street are on completely different pages.

I've never felt more on a losing side than I have with this debate!


Steve Richardson
Gaffer of My Local Services
My Local Services | Me on LinkedIn

Was in the States for a couple of weeks on my holls, and absolutely no mention of the EU Referendum over there, and no one cares

So been catching up with the leave/remain propaganda. Anyone see the Farage/PM debate on ITV? I missed it but apparently both gave a good account of themsleves.

Just looking at our own poll, it's been ticking over and is up to 7,645 votes. Current percentages are: 78% leave, 17% stay and now 5% unsure. I hope our poll is completely wrong, but it would be a buzz if it accurately predicted the outcome!

So a minor shift down, but still overwhelmingly a vote to leave 

Good to see MP's sticking with their convictions with the BBC reporting MP Sarah Wollaston switching sides from Leave to Remain.

I suspect there is going to be some serious political fall out for all parties after the vote, whichever way it goes.

Not long now till the big day...


Steve Richardson
Gaffer of My Local Services
My Local Services | Me on LinkedIn

So your not sitting on the fence anymore then? To be honest I'm not sure what was the point of the televised debate, firstly the questions were already pre-written prior to them being asked. At most only 4 or 5 questions were asked to both Farage and Cameron and the woman host forgot what her name is, kept chipping in to tell them to hurry up with their answers.... in fact i found the programme to be annoying and little or nothing more was to be learned from this so called farcical debate..... Which wasn't really a debate...

I'll stick with the leave campaign as up to now no one has given me a single valued reason to remain. I think the argument over trade is absolute nonsense, if you / we want another nations goods and services we will purchase them and vice versa. As Farage said the USA does far more trade with the EU than what the UK does....... I also think that the vote is going to be more about immigration and the resulting lack of services such as in schools and hospitals because of it rather than the EU...... We'll have to wait and see

 


Thanks,
Barney

Having just watched question time and Boris and Nicola earlier on ITV I believe we'll be leaving. Eddie Izzard for me was a complete embarrassment to watch and completely lost the plot when calling an audience member who disagreed with him as a little Englander! And if you watched him he spent the entire evening waving his arms and hands as a means of getting his point across........ Now where in Europe have we seen that before?.. Farage should have just punched his lights out and been done with it...


Thanks,
Barney

So your not sitting on the fence anymore then?

 ”

 

Nope, I've decided, rightly or wrongly that I'm voting stay. The missus however and pretty much everyone else I know are voting leave.

I think we will leave, I don't think it will be as clear cut as our poll suggests but I reckon the leave campaign have it in the bag.

I genuinely think we will look back in 20 years and regret it, but I'll be 67 by then, dreaming off retirement with only another 30 years to go for a state pension...


Steve Richardson
Gaffer of My Local Services
My Local Services | Me on LinkedIn

This is brilliant news, if accurate.  I have already Postal Voted Leave, & have not been very hopeful.

I Voted to Stay in the 70's when it was simple choice of free movement of Goods & Services & Labour, between Countries of similar social & economic standing, not the disparate, let any country join, mash up, we have now, & how much more will have to spend bailing out the poor unfortunates, at the mercy of the ill conceived Euro,

We are a fantastic, Strong, inventive, resilient Nation, we will prevail.     

 

          


jediknight123

I think everyone who wants to remain should be forced to wear a pink beret... Seriously though I don't think it will make one jot of difference to businesses and life will carry on pretty much as normal... The financial markets / speculators will be gambling as usual so the currency markets will be volatile up to and probably a short time afterwards... Scotland may want and have another referendum, well the last one didn't bother the rest of the UK too much so another one will probably have not much effect either, as long as they fund it themselves or let the entire UK vote on whether they should stay or go.... Personally I see that as nothing more than another red herring... Power and democracy needs to be returned to the people and removed from an unelected bureaucracy which none of us has any control over or know who the heck these unelected numpties are... 


Thanks,
Barney

Just gave a mention of mylocalservices poll in the Daily Mail... May drum up some more no votes....


Thanks,
Barney

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